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Although a recent surge of interest in commercial piloting has improved recruitment efforts, some industry insiders argue that there needs to be more federal loan availability for aspiring pilots if airlines are to ward off a pilot shortage that has already exacted a toll on U.S. regional carriers.
“There is going to have to be a complete or partial government solution to this,” said Kit Darby, whose KitDarby.com Aviation Consulting focuses on pilot career services. “We have all these pilots we are going to need.”
By next year, the University of North Dakota’s 2016 Pilot Supply Forecast predicts, the U.S. will have a shortage of 3,500 commercial pilots.
Causes of the shortage vary. On the supply side, many potential pilots looked elsewhere after airlines put a delay on hiring as a result of the 2008 recession. They were also discouraged by low starting pay at regional carriers and by the onset in 2013 of a rule increasing the minimum number of flight-training hours for commercial pilots from 250 to 1,500.
Interest in commercial piloting has recovered in the past couple of years, however, as regional airlines have upped average first-year pay by 200%, to $57,000, since 2014, according to Darby.
Meanwhile, both mainline and regional carriers have implemented pathway programs designed to provide a defined route from university and vocational pilot-training programs to jobs at airlines.
As a result, universities and flight-training schools are experiencing a boom. For example, this year the Daytona Beach campus of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University reached the enrollment cap for its pilot-training degree program for the first time in nearly 30 years.
Still, industry growth and a spate of upcoming mandatory retirements have fueled concerns of a deepening pilot shortfall over time. This year, some 2,000 pilots at major airlines will reach the mandatory retirement age of 65. That figure will increase to 3,000 annually from 2023 through 2026, according to the University of North Dakota forecast.
Industry growth is also driving demand for new pilots. Boeing forecasts that the U.S. will need 212,000 new civil aviation pilots over the next 20 years, with approximately 80% of them needed for commercial flying.
United alone expects to hire 10,000 pilots by 2029 due to retirements, attrition and projected growth.
In recruiting new pilots, airlines can point to the profession’s high income potential. Over the course of a 30- to 35-year career, pilots can expect to earn between $10.5 million and $13 million, according to data provided by Darby.
Still, entry into the industry is financially challenging. Completing a four-year university program along with the flight hours required for an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate typically costs $150,000 to $200,000. And while pilots can obtain an ATP license for less than that through a vocational flight-training school, airlines still typically want their pilots to have college degrees of some kind because, Darby said, “It shows you can study and learn in an intense environment.”
Faye Malarkey Black, president of the Regional Airline Association (RAA), said that the high costs have the effect of excluding many potential pilots, especially if they come from disadvantaged backgrounds.
“We hear time and time again from people who have an interest in it that they cannot possibly become a pilot because they simply can’t afford it,” she said.
Compounding financing issues for aspiring pilots are the limits of federal student loan programs.
For the most part, flight-training schools aren’t eligible to connect students to Title IV federal loans, said Andrew Pentis, a certified student loan counselor with Student Loan Hero. That can be a problem for people of all sorts of financial means, since it excludes them from the low-interest borrowing, delayed repayment programs and income-based repayment programs offered by the federal government.
But, Pentis said, it creates special challenges for lower-income individuals, who lose out on the possibility of receiving federally supported grants or subsidized loans and who don’t have the credit scores to take out a student loan in the private market.
Even for those seeking to attend a university pilot-school program, however, the Title IV program can be inadequate. Students are capped at $57,500 in federal loans over the course of their studies, which is often less than a third of the total cost of obtaining an ATP certificate. Furthermore, the loans don’t apply to cockpit-training hours.
The cost barriers to pilot entry have prompted airlines to begin taking small steps of their own toward assistance. Notably, regional carrier Republic Airways, which opened its Lift flight-training academy last year, is subsidizing the cost of that training by approximately $20,000 in exchange for a commitment to work at the airline, chief administrative officer Matt Koscal said in a September interview.
Mainline airlines have thus far steered clear of including direct financial or loan assistance in their pathway programs. However, at a recent gathering of reporters, United executive vice president of human resources and labor relations Kate Gebo said the carrier is looking into scholarships, subsidized training and loan guarantees.
Darby said he expects to see mainline carriers begin offering such assistance as the pilot shortage becomes more acute. Still, both he and the RAA say it’s the federal government that is best positioned to address the cost barriers to becoming a pilot.
“We have to have a broader solution to get more pilots more quickly,” Darby said. “It’s not likely we can get people fast enough on an individual school or airline basis, and if we don’t do it, then we restrict our airlines’ ability to fly.”
Black said the RAA is calling for two types of steps from the federal government.
First, the organization wants mechanisms in place that will make it easier for vocational flight-training schools to get accredited within the Title IV loan program.
Second, the RAA is calling for legislation to create new federally backed loans that would cover the costs of obtaining flight hours and would allow for loan forbearance during the time that aspiring pilots are obtaining those hours.
Source: travelweekly.com