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PwC says, “We expect growth in tourism arrivals to drop to mid-single-digit increases beginning in 2018 and to average 5.0% growth compounded annually to 1.6 million in 2021.”
France continues to be the largest source of tourists to Mauritius, with Europe as a whole accounting for 58% of arrivals. Spain, The Netherlands and Germany recorded the largest percentage increases over the last two years. “The next largest source of tourists, 23%, comes from Africa, led by Réunion and South Africa.”
Only a few hotel openings are expected in the next four years—the Ritz Carlton and Park Inn by Radisson Mauritius in 2018, a Sheraton Hotel and Hilton Garden Inn in 2020, and the Anantara Le Chaland Hotel.
“All told, only 470 rooms are expected to be added during the forecast period, a 0.7% compound annual increase. The recent growth of other forms of inventory such as Airbnb and other tourist residences is impressive. Hotel rooms now make up 62% of total available rooms when including other forms of accommodation. As such, we anticipate demand to be matched by these other forms of accommodation in the short term.”
It is apparent that peer-to-peer digital platforms such as Airbnb are driving a lot of the growth in the non-hotel room inventory. “With tourism growth slowing, we expect growth in guest nights to moderate as well, increasing at a 1.8% compound annual rate through 2021.”
PwC say that while there is a moratorium on new projects in place in the near term, and relatively few rooms expected to be added through 2021, growth in the non-hotel room inventory will ease pressure on room rates. “We project the ADR will rise at a 4.3% compound annual rate over the next four years. We project room revenue in Mauritius to increase at a 6.2% compound annual rate to a projected €857 million in 2021. The impact of Brexit and volatility of foreign exchange rates may impact future revenue growth.”
Five-star hotels
“With continued growth in foreign tourism, we look for guest nights to increase over the next two years and remain steady in 2020-21 as growth in foreign tourism slows. For the forecast period as a whole, we expect guest nights to increase at a 4.6% compound annual rate.”
With occupancy rates on the rise, PwC project continued growth in the average room rate to €294 in 2021, a 3.7% compound annual increase. Total room revenue for five-star hotels will increase by a projected 8.4% compounded annually to €441 million in 2021.
Three and four-star hotels
“We have combined data for three and four-star hotels in Mauritius. We expect guest nights to increase at a 5.2% compound annual rate over the next four years. We expect room rates to continue to grow as occupancy rates rise.”
The average rate is expected to increase to €134 in 2021, a 4.0% compound annual increase. Overall room revenue for three and four-star hotels is projected to increase at a 9.4% compound annual rate to €241 million in 2021.
Outlook for 2021
PwC projects the number of available hotel rooms to increase at a 0.7% compound annual rate, rising to 14 075 in 2021. The average occupancy rate will rise to 79.8% in 2021.
“We project guest nights for the forecast period as a whole to rise to 4.1 million in 2021, a 1.8% compound annual increase. We also project that average room rates will increase by 4.3% compounded annually to 2021. Hotel room revenue in Mauritius is expected to grow at a 6.2% compound annual rate to 2021.”
Source: tourismupdate.co.za